Idem

Trained by Lucinda Russell and Michael Scudamore at their yard in Milnathort, Perthshire — a team that has already sent out 49 winners this season — Idem has built a career record of 4 wins and 11 places from 23 races, winning roughly 1 in every 6. That is a solid foundation, but the really telling number is what happens when he steps up in class. In 7 races at Class 2 level, some of the best races in Britain, he has won exactly none of them. The ability is there; the top tier has, so far, been a step too far.

His most consistent partnership is with jockey Patrick Wadge, who has ridden him to all four of his wins from 16 races together — a win rate of 25%, or 1 in every 4. That is a meaningful connection on a horse who clearly takes some understanding. The trainer has been candid about just how much understanding is required: Idem has plenty of ability, but is also, in their own words, very quirky. There is even talk at the yard of one day trying him over fences rather than hurdles, though they acknowledge his temperament may have the final say on whether that ever happens.

Recent form tells a more mixed story. His last six races have produced no wins, with a pair of second-place finishes his best efforts. He does particularly well on normal, dry ground, winning 2 of his 7 races in those conditions — a 29% win rate — and has raced just once in the last day, so he is clearly still being campaigned actively. The honest read on Idem is of a talented, complicated horse who knows exactly where he likes to run and can be brilliant when everything lines up. Get him back to Kelso, on decent ground, with Wadge in the saddle, and you would not bet against him adding to that remarkable course record.