Holly Hartingo

Her last win came at Chepstow in October 2024, and in the four races since then she has finished second or third every single time. That is not a horse losing interest or dropping in form — that is a horse threading the needle between genuinely good efforts and the frustration of just being beaten. Trainer Alastair Ralph, who operates out of Bridgnorth in Shropshire and has sent out 25 winners this season alone, put it neatly: she has been knocking on the door, and he believes she is not far away from knocking it down. Her two runs at Kempton this season back that up — beaten by only a length on her first race back after nearly a year off, then losing by a head at Christmas in a race she was arguably unlucky not to win.

The conditions matter with this horse. On wet or muddy ground, she comes alive — two wins from five races in those conditions works out at 40%, which is a hugely impressive hit rate. Her typical level of competition is one step below the top tier, and she wins roughly one in every eight races at that grade, so finding the right race matters. Her regular partner Jonathan Burke has the clearest read on her: together they have won 3 of their 7 races, a win rate of 43%, which suggests a genuine partnership rather than a coincidence.

Ralph is eyeing a run at Chepstow on Friday — the same track where she last won — and if the ground comes up wet, everything is pointing in the right direction. She raced just yesterday, which tells you she is fit and active. At ten years old, she is an experienced campaigner who knows her job. The pieces are there. Whether the door finally comes off its hinges is the question worth watching.