Hillstar Blues

The numbers are modest, no question about it. One win from 12 races is a win rate of around 8%, or roughly 1 in every 12 attempts. But context matters. The recent form string — 14, 16, 7, 8, 1, 13 reading from most recent back — tells a story of a horse that has spent most of its career finishing in mid-pack or worse, before that sudden burst to the front at Thurles six months ago. The seventh and eighth-place finishes just before the win hinted that something was improving, and Thurles is where it all clicked.

Since that victory, though, the results have been harder to look at. Finishes of 13th, then a win, then 16th and 14th suggest a horse that showed its best on one particular day and has not been able to replicate it. That is not unusual — plenty of horses win once and then find the form elusive again — but it does mean the team will be working hard to figure out what brought out the best in Hillstar Blues at Thurles and how to recreate it.

Sean O'Keeffe has been the regular partner in the saddle, riding Hillstar Blues in seven of those 12 races and picking up the winning ride at Thurles. That gives the pair a win rate of roughly 1 in 7 together, which is actually a better record than the horse's overall career figures suggest. The fact that Aherne keeps coming back to the same jockey is a sign of trust, and with Hillstar Blues having raced just one day ago, the yard is clearly keeping this horse busy and looking for the right opportunity to find that form again.