Havaila

The numbers tell an interesting story. Havaila wins about 1 in every 5 races overall — 19% if you want the figure — but stretch that out over long distances of two miles or more, and he wins 7 from 24, which is nearly 1 in 3. He is a stayer, a horse that finds his rhythm and his confidence over a proper trip. On normal ground he is even better, winning 3 of 9 in those conditions. His jockey Caoilin Quinn has spoken about how well he travels and jumps, and specifically about how much he seems to enjoy better ground — which is racing shorthand for a horse that moves with real freedom and fluency rather than grinding through it.

Plumpton is a track that suits him particularly well. He has won 2 of his 4 races there, which might sound modest until you consider how difficult it is to dominate any course consistently. But his most recent win at Sandown — a stiffer, more prestigious venue — suggests his ceiling might be higher than his usual class of race implies. Gary Moore said during a stable visit last autumn that there could be improvement still to come, and that he had thought about running him at Ascot. For a horse typically competing at the fourth tier of British racing, that is an ambitious thought — and an exciting one.

Harry Cobden, one of the sport's leading jump jockeys, has ridden him to 2 wins from 5 attempts, a 40% win rate that speaks well of how the partnership clicks. The yard itself is in fine form, having sent out 99 winners this season. Quinn has floated the idea of the Scottish National as a target — a long, fast-run race that could play to every one of Havaila's strengths. Right now, on a three-race winning streak and raced just yesterday, he looks like a horse in the form of his life.