Gundogan

That solitary win came at Carlisle on 21 August 2024, now twenty months ago, and it remains the one bright moment in an otherwise modest career. Carlisle is a track with a stiff uphill finish that genuinely tests a horse's resolution, so winning there is no fluke. The trouble is it has not come close to repeating it, with the last six runs reading 4-2-4-5-5-3 — a string of near-misses and mid-pack finishes that will be familiar to anyone who has followed this horse with any hope.

Gundogan operates almost exclusively at Class 5, which is the bread-and-butter level of British racing — think of it as the lower leagues, where the prize money is modest and the competition is everyday. Over its preferred trip of five to six-and-a-half furlongs, it has won just 1 from 17 races, a 6% win rate. In other words, it very rarely wins even in the conditions it likes best. Callum Rodriguez rides it most often and has been aboard for that one win from seven races together — a win rate of around 1 in 7, or 14%, which is actually notably better than the horse's overall record and suggests the partnership at least gives it the best chance.

The trainer, Tony Carroll, is based at Cropthorne in Worcestershire and has had a productive season — 134 winners sent out is a serious number, meaning the yard clearly knows how to get horses to win. For Gundogan, the challenge is doing it again. It raced just yesterday and remains active, so this is very much a horse still in the game. Whether another Carlisle moment is waiting somewhere down the line is the question worth watching.