Goodie Two Shoes

What makes this horse worth watching is how it has run lately. In its last six races, it has won three of them — a 50 per cent win rate that is far better than its career average. The most recent win came just four days ago at Goodwood, and before that it won earlier in the summer. This is a horse that is firing now, even if it has had an uneven stretch with a second place and some lower finishes mixed in among the wins.

The secret to Goodie Two Shoes appears to be ground conditions. On normal, standard going, it wins more than six times out of every ten races — that is genuinely impressive — but it clearly does not like racing on very fast, dry ground or on wet, muddy surfaces. Joseph Patrick O'Brien's yard at Owning Hill, in County Kilkenny, knows this weakness and seems to be placing it carefully. O'Brien has been prolific this season, sending out 160 winners already, so the horse is in the hands of someone who pays attention to what works.

Simon Torrens is the horse's regular jockey, though the partnership has not quite clicked yet — just one win from six races together. That might simply mean the right races have not lined up, or it could suggest the ride is not the ideal fit. What matters more is that this is an active, capable horse in form right now, aimed at races where the ground suits it. That is how horses at this level win races: nothing fancy, just careful placement and knowing your horse's likes and dislikes.