Gardener

The real story is Hexham. In just three races there, Gardener has won twice — an exceptional win rate of roughly two-thirds that stands in sharp contrast to his overall win rate of about one in five across his career. His last victory came three months ago at that same course, which is recent enough to matter. Stretch the distance to between a mile and six furlongs and two miles, and the form gets even more compelling: three wins from eight races at that trip, a 38% win rate that shows this is clearly the right package for him. The Yorkshire trainer believes another win is coming, reckoning Gardener will strike again if given a fair weight in races suited to his profile.

That said, Gardener has stumbled badly when stepped up to the top tier. In 14 races at Class 4 level — the higher grade of competition — he has managed just one win. His recent form reads 9-2-5-1-1-3, which contains two wins in the last six runs but also some middling efforts that suggest consistency remains elusive. The puzzle of Lewis Stones, his most frequent jockey, is worth noting: the pair have managed no wins together from five attempts, which hints that either the combination simply does not click or Gardener performs better with different hands in the saddle. At this stage of his career, he is a horse that will keep fighting in the right race at the right track, but peak performances appear behind him.