Frostmagic

Across a career of 19 races, Frostmagic has won 3 times and placed on 10 other occasions, which works out to a win roughly 1 in every 6 races (16%). On the face of it that is modest, but the placing record tells a different story: this is a horse that shows up and competes. Recent form backs that up too. In the last six races, Frostmagic has finished third, first, second, first, ninth, and third — with only that one poor run in an otherwise consistent sequence. A horse racing just one day ago and still producing numbers like that is in the thick of things right now.

Normal ground conditions suit it best — dry enough to be decent underfoot, not churned up by rain — and on that surface Frostmagic has won 2 of 8 races, a 25% win rate that is notably stronger than its overall record suggests. Conditions matter enormously in this sport, and a horse that clearly has a preference is one whose the yard — sorry, whose trainer — can plot a path to the right races.

That trainer is Ismail Mohammed, operating out of Newmarket, the heartland of British flat racing. Mohammed's yard has sent out 14 winners this season, suggesting a stable in decent form. Most of Frostmagic's races have come in the hands of Tommie Jakes, who has ridden the horse 5 times and won once together, a 20% rate that is actually ahead of the horse's overall average. That partnership is clearly one worth watching.

Frostmagic competes mainly at Class 5 level — the bread-and-butter end of the racing ladder — where it has won just 1 from 10 races. The Southwell performances suggest there may be more ability here than that record alone implies. Keep an eye on the entries: if Southwell appears on the schedule with decent ground, this is a horse worth a second look.