Francisco

His two victories tell the story of a horse that can win, but only under the right conditions. Both came on normal ground, which suits him far better than softer or firmer surfaces — he has won 2 of 14 races on normal ground (14%), compared to almost nothing elsewhere. Distance-wise, he shows his best form over 7 furlongs to a mile, another narrow sweet spot where he has also won 2 of 14 races (14%). His last victory came at Lingfield Park on 27 April 2026, now four months in the past, which suggests he has been racing regularly but without success since.

Patrick Chamings trains him at Baughurst in Hampshire, and the yard has had a decent season with nine winners. Alfie Redman is his regular jockey, though their record together is modest — one win from eight races (12%). What stands out, and what may explain some of Francisco's struggles, is his record in Class 6 races, where he has failed to win in 11 attempts. He is a horse that simply does not perform at that level, which means his two wins have come against weaker opposition — exactly where a horse of his calibre should be winning.

Recent form has been lean. His last six runs show only one success, a fourth place five races ago, with nothing else placing. He was out just a day ago, which means Francisco is staying busy, racing frequently in search of the right spot. He is the kind of horse that needs everything to align — the right ground, the right distance, the right class of race — and when it does, he can deliver. But those moments are rare enough that both trainer and jockey will be waiting patiently for the next one.