Fortunate Man

The key to understanding Fortunate Man is the ground beneath his hooves. On wet or muddy ground, he has won 3 of his 7 races — that's 43%, almost one in two — which is the kind of number that makes trainers quietly excited when the weather forecast turns grim. Joint-trainer Jonjo O'Neill has been open about it: he's better on soft ground, and that's where the team will be pointing him. His first career win came at Newbury in December 2023, and his most recent came at Aintree on Boxing Day 2025, which is exactly the sort of occasion — big crowd, testing conditions — that suits a horse with a bit of drama about him.

That drama is worth dwelling on. His trainer puts it bluntly: "he can be a bit frustrating — good when he's good and awful when he's awful." His last six runs back that up: a win, then third, then fifth, then fourth twice. He's not a horse you can set your watch by. But his regular jockey, Jonjo O'Neill Jr — yes, the trainer's son — has won 4 of their 12 races together, a win rate of 33%, or roughly 1 in 3. That's a strong partnership, and when they click, as they did at Aintree on a winter's day, the result can look quite convincing. O'Neill Jr noted after that win that Fortunate Man had done it well despite being short of a race, which suggests there may be more in the tank.

The yard has been in fine form this season, sending out 52 winners, so Fortunate Man is part of a well-oiled operation. The longer-term plan, hinted at by both trainer and jockey, is the regional Nationals — long-distance races over fences that reward stamina and a horse who actually enjoys hard miles. For a mudlark with a streak of the unpredictable, that sounds like a very good fit.