First Time

The real clue to this horse's future may lie in its best distance. When First Time runs between five and six and a half furlongs — shorter races that suit speedier types — it has won one of its five attempts, a 20 per cent win rate that stands out sharply against its overall record of one win from ten. That suggests a horse that might excel over shorter trips but has been asked to do too much when the yard stretch it out. Recent form has been mixed: a fifth, then three consecutive placings, followed by an eleventh and most recently a second, which came just yesterday. That closing run hints at some spark still there, even if the wins are not coming.

Richard and Peter Fahey's Musley Bank yard in North Yorkshire has been in fine form this season with 23 winners to their name, so First Time is in capable hands. At three years old, there is still time for this horse to rediscover the knack. The question now is whether the yard will drop it back to its sweet spot at shorter distances, or whether today's second-place finish signals a return to form that could lead to number two before the year is out.