Fanciulla Del West

Ed Walker trains her out of Upper Lambourn in Berkshire, a yard that has hit the ground running this season with 80 winners already on the board. Walker knows what a good horse looks like, and he is clearly enthusiastic about this one. He has pointed out that she ran with ability at two and has physically transformed over the winter — she is a big horse who has filled out considerably, and that kind of development at this stage of a career is usually a very positive sign. Bigger, stronger horses often take time to find their feet, and when they do, the results can come quickly.

Her most recent run, just a day ago, was particularly encouraging. She finished second at Yarmouth, beaten by a horse Walker himself described as a smart prospect. Losing to a potentially high-class rival while running well for most of the race is exactly the kind of defeat that tells you more than a comfortable win in weaker company would. It suggests she belongs in decent races and is capable of competing there.

The honest summary is this: four races in, no wins yet, but the trajectory is pointing firmly upward. A horse that keeps finishing second and third, trained by someone sending out winners at pace, and still physically improving at three — that combination tends to resolve itself into a victory sooner rather than later.