Express Surprise

The most striking number in the whole profile is this — on wet or muddy ground, Express Surprise has won 3 of its 7 races, a rate of 43%, or nearly 1 in every 2. That is an extraordinary difference from its overall record, and it tells you that when rain has softened the ground, this horse transforms. Punters and racing fans who track conditions obsessively would have this horse circled in red for any wet-day card.

The recent form backs that up. The last six races read as two wins sandwiched around some quieter efforts, and crucially the most recent of those wins came just six weeks ago at Chepstow. The horse is clearly in good heart right now, and with a race just yesterday, the yard at Woolhope are keeping it busy — a sign of confidence from trainer Clive Boultbee-Brooks, who has sent out 9 winners this season and clearly has the string running well.

Regular jockey Richard Patrick has been aboard for 9 of the horse's 19 races and has ridden 2 of its 4 career wins — a win rate of 22% together, which is actually slightly better than the horse's overall average. That kind of continuity between horse and jockey matters more than people realise; it takes time to understand how a horse wants to be ridden, and Patrick clearly has the measure of this one.

The one mild caveat is that Express Surprise typically competes at Class 4 — a solid mid-tier level — and has won just 1 from 8 races there (12%). Most of its best form has come in other conditions or classes, which suggests the horse may actually be more comfortable stepping up or down from its usual grade. Its career began with a first win at Huntingdon in January 2025, and it has been adding to that tally steadily ever since. Watch the weather forecast before its next race.