Ex S'Elance

What keeps the story mildly interesting is what happens when the weather turns nasty. On very wet and muddy ground, Ex S'Elance transforms into something almost competitive — 2 wins from just 6 races in those conditions is a 33% success rate, or roughly 1 in every 3 races. That is a dramatically better record than on any other type of ground, and it suggests this horse genuinely needs the mud flying to show its best. Victor Thompson, training out of Alnwick in Northumbria, will be well aware of that — the yard has sent out just 1 winner this season, so finding the right conditions for every horse matters.

The partnership with jockey Thomas Dowson is the other bright spot. Together they have won 2 of their 10 races — that's 1 in every 5 — which is a meaningful improvement on the horse's overall record and suggests the pair have developed a genuine understanding. Both of Ex S'Elance's career wins came with Dowson aboard, at Hexham in March 2023 and then Newcastle the following month. That short, sharp winning run feels like a lifetime ago now. A 31-day break since its last run means it arrives at least freshened up. Whether that, and a forecast of heavy rain, might be enough to coax one more win out of a tough old veteran remains to be seen.