Where Espona Bay genuinely shines is over a specific distance. At 7 furlongs to a mile, the horse has won 2 of 6 races, a win rate of one win in every three starts. That is a real strength to build on. Trainer Scott Dixon, based in Rolleston, Nottinghamshire, will be aware of this preference—the yard has been in good form this season, sending out 33 winners. Recent form offers encouragement too: Espona Bay has won twice in its last six races, including that Chepstow victory on 6 August. Before that came a third-place finish, then a fifth, then two more thirds, then a second-place. It is not spectacular consistency, but the pattern shows a horse capable of running well when conditions suit.
The first win came at Wolverhampton in May, and the fact that both career victories have arrived at lower-class tracks suggests Espona Bay may have found its level. With just 2 wins from 16 races overall—a 12 per cent win rate—this is a horse that will need to be ridden shrewdly, placed at the right distance and the right grade. Still, at three years old, there is time for improvement. The Chepstow win last week proved the horse is still capable of getting its head in front.
| Course | Races | Results | Last visited | Win rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolverhampton Galloping |
3 | 1 win, 1 second, 1 third | 17 Jul | 33.3% |
| Lingfield Park Sharp |
3 | 3 other | 25 Jul | 0% |
| Chepstow Galloping |
2 | 1 win, 1 third | 18 Aug | 50% |
| Windsor Sharp |
2 | 1 third, 1 other | 15 Jun | 0% |
| Newcastle Galloping |
2 | 1 third, 1 other | 21 Mar | 0% |
| Ascot Galloping |
1 | 1 other | 30 Apr | 0% |
| Kempton Park Galloping |
1 | 1 second | 22 Oct | 0% |
| Great Yarmouth Galloping |
1 | 1 other | 16 Sep | 0% |
| chelmsford | 1 | 1 second | 28 Aug | 0% |