Ernie From Nurney

What genuinely stands out, though, is what happens when the rain arrives. On very wet, heavy ground, Ernie From Nurney has won 2 of just 4 races — that's a 50% win rate, which in any sport would be considered extraordinary. Most horses at this level win less than 1 in 10 on any surface. The fact that both career victories came in the space of a fortnight in spring 2024 — first at Naas in early April, then at Limerick two weeks later — suggests a horse that can hit a real purple patch when conditions and confidence align. The key word there is conditions. If the ground is genuinely wet and soft underfoot, Ernie becomes a very different animal.

The partnership with jockey Peter Smithers is well established, the pair having raced together 19 times. Their combined win rate sits at 11%, or 2 wins from those 19 outings — which tracks almost exactly with Ernie's overall record. It's a consistent, familiar pairing, the kind that builds understanding over time. Padraig Roche, training out of Coolaghknock Glebe in County Kildare, has had seven winners so far this season, showing the yard is in decent form even if Ernie himself hasn't added to that tally yet.

Recent form shows a third place and a fourth place among the last six runs, with a few disappointing efforts mixed in. It's not the form of a horse completely out of sorts, more one waiting for the right moment. Given that the ground can change quickly in Ireland, and given what Ernie From Nurney has shown when conditions turn properly wet, it would be unwise to write him off entirely. He raced just yesterday, so he's very much still in the mix — and if the forecast looks grey, he's worth keeping an eye on.