Empirical

The recent form figures tell an interesting story. Reading them from oldest to most recent — 7, 3, 8, 3 — that middle blip aside, Empirical has finished third in two of its last four races, which in racing terms means it keeps turning up and running creditably. The 8 is the outlier, a race to forget, but the bookending thirds show a horse that, on its day, is mixing it with better rivals. Raced just one day ago, this is a horse very much in the thick of its campaign right now.

What works in Empirical's favour is the stable it calls home. Ed Walker's yard at Upper Lambourn has sent out 80 winners already this season — that is a serious operation, the kind of team that knows how to place a horse and how to get the best out of one. Upper Lambourn sits at the heart of British racing's training heartland, and Walker's numbers this season put him firmly among the busier, more successful yards in the country. When a yard is firing at that rate, they tend to know what they have on their hands, and the fact that Empirical keeps getting runs suggests there is belief behind the scenes that a win is coming.

At three years old, there is plenty of time. Many horses of this age are still learning the job — how to settle, how to race against others, how to produce their best at the right moment. Empirical