Elly Bay

The recent form makes for mixed reading. A third-place finish in one of the last six races hints at a horse that can compete when things fall right, but results of fifth, sixth, and a pair of ninths suggest inconsistency is a real issue. Horses that finish ninth are either having a bad day, finding the company too strong, or simply not quite firing — and at this stage in Elly Bay's career, it is hard to say which explanation applies most often.

Based at Dunboyne in County Meath, Elly Bay is trained by Jack W Davison, a yard that has sent out eight winners already this season, so it is clearly a set-up capable of getting horses ready to win races. That makes Elly Bay's own blank sheet a little more telling — this is not a horse being mismanaged or overlooked. It is simply yet to find the right moment. At three years old, there is time, and plenty of horses take a while to put it all together. But with no wins from eight attempts, that first breakthrough is becoming more than just a milestone — it is starting to feel like a test of what kind of horse Elly Bay can actually become.