Ellerton

He has been true to his word. Ellerton has now won 2 of his last 6 races, including a win at Newton Abbot just this week — which means he is genuinely in form right now rather than trading on past glories. Across his whole career the record reads 2 wins and 6 places from 14 races, a win rate of roughly 1 in every 7, which is modest on paper. But the numbers tell a more interesting story when you dig a little deeper.

On normal ground conditions Ellerton is a different animal altogether — he has won 2 of his 4 races in those conditions, which means he converts at 50%, or one in every two attempts. That is a remarkable figure. It suggests the ground really does matter for this horse, and when the planets align — the right conditions, the right track — he becomes genuinely difficult to beat.

The one puzzle in Ellerton's record is his performance at Class 4 level, which is the grade he most often runs at. Despite six attempts, he has not managed a win at that level. Both of his victories have come in different circumstances, which hints that Tizzard and the team may be finding him opportunities that suit his strengths rather than simply slotting him into the obvious races. It is a small but telling detail about how a good yard manages a horse.

Tizzard's stable has sent out 58 winners this season, so this is a yard in confident form, not one scratching around for results. Ellerton looks like a horse whose story is still being written — active as of this week, winning races, and clearly thriving under his current team.