Elizabeth Bay

The reason for that optimism is a rating of 72. In practical terms, a rating is the sport's way of measuring how good a horse actually is — and 72 is a respectable number that says Elizabeth Bay runs competitively, even if the wins haven't come. Her recent form backs that up: in her last six races she has finished third twice and second once, which means she is consistently making the frame without quite getting over the line. That is a frustrating pattern, but it is also the pattern of a horse that belongs at the level it is racing at.

Previously trained by Jane Chapple-Hyam, one of the better-regarded names in British racing, Elizabeth Bay has arrived in Scotland with a pedigree of care behind her. Katie Scott describes her as "a really smart filly" and has a clear long-term plan: the hope is that she can follow a similar path to Luna, another horse in the yard, and eventually become a broodmare — meaning her future value may lie as much in what her foals achieve as in what she does on the track herself. That is not a consolation prize; it is simply how the sport works at this level, where a well-bred, well-rated horse that never quite wins can still be genuinely valuable.

For now, though, the focus is on racing. At four years old and having run just eleven times, she is still relatively lightly raced, and a move to a new yard with fresh ideas sometimes shakes things loose. Scott's team clearly believe there is a win in her somewhere — and with a horse placing in nearly a third of her races without ever reaching top gear, they may well be right.