Duran

The real story is Duran's relationship with ground conditions and certain tracks. Put him on fast, dry ground and he transforms into a different proposition entirely, winning three of his last nine races on such surfaces—a 33 percent win rate. That's a meaningful advantage. He also shows genuine form at York, where he has won two of his five races there, making him a course specialist. His regular rider, Faye McManoman, has an even more impressive record in the saddle together: four wins from twenty races, a 20 percent win rate that sits well clear of his overall numbers. Under her, he looks like a better horse.

Trained by Nigel Tinkler at Langton in North Yorkshire, Duran competes mostly in lower-level races, but the yard is firing this season with thirty-seven winners already sent out. Tinkler has noted that the horse ran well at Haydock recently when finishing third, but the ground was too heavy for him—he needs it quick and firm to stretch out properly. With that knowledge in hand, a trip to York in dry conditions, carrying the form of that recent second place and with McManoman aboard, might be the stage where Duran finally gets back to winning ways.