Duran

The big clue is in the ground. On fast, dry conditions, Duran wins 3 races from 9 attempts — that's 33%, or roughly 1 in every 3. Compare that to his overall record and the difference is stark. Tinkler made the point explicitly after a recent third-place finish at Haydock, saying the ground was too sticky and Duran simply couldn't stretch out. When the sun has baked the track, this is a different horse entirely.

Nowhere is that clearer than at York, where Duran has won 2 of his 4 races. Two wins from four visits to any track is the kind of record that makes people sit up — most horses never win at a given course at all, let alone at 50%. York is one of Britain's most prestigious venues, so performing well there consistently isn't just a quirk of statistics; it's a genuine mark of quality. Tinkler clearly knows it too, with plans to head back there as the season progresses.

The partnership with jockey Faye McManoman is another thread worth pulling. In 19 races together they've won 4 times — a win rate of 21%, or roughly 1 in every 5 — which is meaningfully better than Duran's overall record. That kind of familiarity between horse and rider tends to matter, and the numbers suggest McManoman gets the best out of him.

Duran hasn't won in his last six races, and his most recent run — just yesterday — saw him finish 16th. That might sound alarming, but Tinkler's comments point to wet ground as the culprit rather than any drop in form. The yard has sent out 37 winners this season, so this is a stable firing on all cylinders. With a York trip on the horizon and the right conditions potentially still to come before the season closes, Duran looks like a horse whose best days in 2025 may not be behind him yet.