Dr Ali

The overall career record reads two wins and nine places from 23 races, which works out at roughly 1 win in every 11 races over his career. That is a modest return on paper. But zoom in on the last six outings and you get a completely different picture: two wins from six, a rate of 1 in 3. He raced just yesterday, so he is firmly in the thick of his season. His wins have come at Kempton Park in January and Wolverhampton in late March, both tracks that tend to suit horses who handle all-weather surfaces well, and both at the shorter sprint distances of five to six-and-a-half furlongs where Dr Ali clearly does his best work. Over those distances, he has won 2 from 14 races — that 14% win rate is nearly double his overall career figure, which tells you that getting the trip right matters enormously with this horse.

Jockey Jonny Peate has been the man in the saddle for much of this purple patch and the numbers back him up. Together they have won 2 of their 9 races, roughly 1 in every 4 — a significantly better outcome than Dr Ali achieves with other riders. That kind of consistency between horse and jockey is not a coincidence; it usually means someone has figured out how to get the best out of an animal that might be fussy or particular about how it is ridden.

Trainer J R Jenkins operates out of Royston in Hertfordshire and has sent out eight winners already this season, so the yard is in decent form. Dr Ali typically runs at the lower end of the racing pyramid, mostly in Class 6 races — the entry level of the sport — where he has won 1 from 13, around 1 in every 13 attempts at that level. That sounds tough, but his two most recent wins suggest he may be outgrowing those depths. A horse who is winning at a 1-in-3 clip over the past six races is one that racegoers should be keeping a close eye on.