Double Red

The clearest strength is Nottingham, where Double Red has an outstanding record: 2 wins from just 3 races. That is a win rate of two-thirds, the kind of dominance that suggests the track suits this horse perfectly. Its other wins came at Lingfield Park, most recently four months ago, which shows it can perform at other venues but clearly has a home advantage at Nottingham. Over the mile-and-three-furlong to mile-and-four-furlong range, Double Red has won 3 of 11 races, a win rate of roughly 27 percent—nearly three times better than its overall record. Distance matters just as much as track.

Henry Candy's Kingston Warren yard is functioning well this season with 8 winners to its name, and the trainer clearly knows what suits this horse. The partnership with regular jockey Trevor Whelan has been less productive—just 1 win from 11 rides together—which may explain why other riders have been used more frequently. Double Red's recent form has been patchy. It finished unplaced and fourth in its last two outings but has managed two decent placing finishes and a fourth from the 6 starts before that, suggesting it remains competitive at the right venue and distance. With no win in the last four months, the horse will need a return to either Nottingham or a suitable middle-distance race to recapture its best form.