Counsel

Trained by Michael Appleby out of Oakham in Rutland, Counsel is part of a yard that has been in seriously good form this season, sending out 79 winners already. Appleby has clearly worked out what brings the best out of this horse, and that includes the ground. On normal conditions, Counsel has won 6 of 20 races — nearly 1 in 3 — which is a meaningful edge. Keep it short and sharp too: 4 of those wins have come over distances between 5 and 6 and a half furlongs, winning 4 from 14 at those trips.

The partnership with jockey Luke Morris is worth noting. Together they have won 3 of their 8 races, which means Morris is in the winner's enclosure with this horse roughly 1 in every 3 times they go out — well above the horse's overall average. When the booking goes in for Morris, pay attention.

At eight years old, Counsel is an experienced, well-travelled campaigner who mostly runs at Class 4 level — competitive mid-tier racing rather than the headline stuff. The win rate there is just 1 from 19 races at that class, which suggests Counsel finds it tough in those fields and is probably better placed stepping slightly down in class. The most recent win came at Wolverhampton just eight weeks ago, and with a race just yesterday, this horse is fit, active, and in the mix. The last six results — two wins sandwiched around some modest efforts — suggest a horse that turns up on its day and absolutely delivers, but needs things to fall right. Get it back to Lingfield and those things have a habit of falling very right indeed.