Chou Chou

What makes Chou Chou genuinely interesting is how clearly she suits a specific trip. Over distances of a mile and a furlong to a mile and two furlongs, she has won 2 of her 13 races — roughly 1 in 6 — which is a dramatically better record than her overall figures suggest. Put her over the right distance and she becomes a different proposition. Both of her career wins came at that range, and both came at Irish tracks in the second half of the season — Tipperary in July and Clonmel in September — which hints that she finds her form when the calendar is winding down.

That Clonmel win, now eight months ago, was the most recent time she hit the front, and her form since has been uninspiring. The 14th and two 9th-place finishes in recent starts suggest something isn't quite clicking at the moment. Still, she is trained by Eamonn O'Connell out of Cullen in County Tipperary, and his yard has already sent out four winners this season, so there is clearly life in the operation. Jockey Killian Leonard, who has ridden her in 6 of her races and won once together with her — a rate of roughly 1 in 6 — retains the partnership, and that continuity matters when you are trying to coax a horse back to form.

Chou Chou is not a horse who is going to set pulses racing with her statistics. But she is a useful example of how raw win rates can be misleading. Catch her over the right distance, at the right time of year, and she is capable of winning. The trick is patience — and knowing exactly when those conditions align.