Cheshire Dancer

Overall, she wins roughly 1 in every 5 races (22%), but the more useful number is what happens when conditions suit her. At distances between seven furlongs and a mile, she has won 2 from 6 — a win rate of 33%, or roughly 1 in 3. And when stepped down from the very top company, she has won 3 of 8 races at Class 4 level, a 38% win rate. That is a horse who tends to find the right level and deliver. Jockey David Probert noted after Ascot that she seems to genuinely enjoy that track and that ground, which matters — some horses perform well almost anywhere, but others have a place that brings out the best in them.

The story behind the Ascot win is one of the more entertaining in recent racing. Trainer Hugo Palmer had her sold — an offer accepted, a deal effectively done. Then she failed a veterinary inspection required for the American buyer, the sale collapsed, and she went out and won a Group-level race at Ascot, instantly worth considerably more than the agreed price. Palmer's own description was simple: "funny how it goes." The win itself came after she had finished third at Royal Ascot earlier in the summer, and Palmer had quietly promised her owners they would come back for the Valiant Stakes. She delivered.

Palmer, based in Malpas, Cheshire, has had a strong season with 66 winners sent out so far. His plan for Cheshire Dancer is to target the Kensington Palace Stakes, with one preparatory run likely before she gets there. He has spoken openly about wanting to win black-type races with her — a way of saying he believes she belongs in the better races, not just filling out a card. Her recent form reads 10-7-1-2-3-1 from last to most recent, which tells a sharp improvement story: she has come from the back of fields to winning twice in her last six, and at Ascot, of all places. Whatever happens next, the sale that fell through looks like the luckiest bad news her team ever received.