Certain Lad

The problem is what has happened since. Certain Lad hasn't won in six races, and its last victory at Doncaster came 29 months ago. In between, it has been running almost exclusively in Class 1 company — the very best races in Britain — and has drawn a blank in all 11 attempts at that level, finishing placed but never quite getting there. That tells its own story: this is a horse that was brilliant enough to win at the second tier, but has consistently found the very top grade just out of reach.

Now add the other complication: Certain Lad is returning from a break of around five months, which is a long time out of action. The recent form before that break was mixed — a couple of second-place finishes, then a slide back to sixth and seventh — so there are real questions about whether it comes back sharper or whether that dip in form was the direction of travel. At nine years old, horses don't tend to suddenly find a new gear.

Jockey George Bass has been the regular partner throughout, riding 15 of those 20 races together and picking up both wins — 2 wins from 15, or winning about 1 in every 7 rides together, which is a solid record. The horse is trained by Jack Channon at West Ilsley in Berkshire, a yard in fine fettle this season having sent out 47 winners. A trainer in that kind of form giving a horse a long break and then bringing it back suggests there's a plan here, and that they believe there's still something worth running for.

Whether Certain Lad can find its way back to that October 2023 level is the question worth watching.