Carnfunnock

The course record at Ayr is the other thing that stands out. Two wins from only three visits is remarkable for any horse, and it tells you something important: some horses just take to certain tracks, whether it is the shape of the bends, the camber, or something harder to explain. Ayr is clearly Carnfunnock's place. The first career win came there back in November 2021, on what you would expect was a cold, wet Scottish afternoon — which, given everything we know about this horse, makes perfect sense.

Daryl Jacob has been the regular partner, riding Carnfunnock seven times and winning twice together — a win rate of 29%, or nearly 1 in 3, which is well above the horse's overall average. That kind of partnership tends to matter; a jockey who knows a horse's quirks can coax out performances that a stranger in the saddle might not.

The trickier part of the picture is the recent run of form. Carnfunnock has not won in its last six races, and the last victory came at Naas in March 2023 — 38 months ago now. At nine years old, trained by S R B Crawford out of Larne in Co Antrim, the horse is still clearly active and still competitive enough to place, but that elusive fifth win has proved stubborn. The step up to Class 2 races — some of the top races in Britain — has not helped, with zero wins from three attempts at that level.

Still, the yard has sent out 12 winners this season, and Carnfunnock raced just one day ago. The ingredients for a winning return are sitting right there: Ayr on a wet day, Daryl Jacob in the saddle. Whether the horse can find that spark again after such a long drought is the question worth watching.