Carlton

The numbers that really stand out belong to Chelmsford. Carlton has won 7 of just 9 races at that track — a remarkable record that means he has crossed the line first there more often than he hasn't. To put that in perspective, most horses are considered specialists if they win a third of their races somewhere. Carlton wins at Chelmsford at a rate of roughly 3 in every 4 visits. It suggests the track genuinely suits him, whether that's the tight turns, the artificial surface, or simply the distances on offer there.

Those distances matter. Carlton does his best work over a mile and three-quarters to two miles — the longer end of the scale — and has won 8 of his 26 races at those trips, roughly 1 in every 3. He's by Frankel, the unbeaten wonder horse turned prolific sire, and Owen has described him as a strong stayer who is "just a good, sound horse." That soundness shows in the career record: 49 races at six years old, with 10 wins and 22 further placed efforts, tells you this is a horse that keeps turning up and keeps being competitive.

Ground conditions seem to bring the best out of him too. On normal ground he wins 1 in every 3 races, but on slow, wet ground that jumps to an extraordinary 2 from 3 — a small sample, but an eye-catching one. Owen sourced Carlton privately, reportedly through jockey Freddy Tylicki, and the trainer has spoken enthusiastically about his potential and hinted at ambitions beyond flat racing, having already tried him over hurdles with further jumping plans in mind.

James Owen's yard has sent out 204 winners this season alone, so this is clearly a well-run operation with horses in form. Carlton's regular jockey Tom Eaves has won just 1 of their 9 races together, an 11% rate that suggests there may be room for improvement in that partnership — but with a win as recently as eight weeks ago at Huntingdon, Carlton is doing plenty right regardless.