Capotes Dream

The recent form makes for sober reading. In its last six races, the best finishes have been a pair of fourth places, with three tenth-place efforts and an eighth sandwiched around them. Those are the runs of a horse finding the competition consistently just a level above it. Capotes Dream typically races at Class 4 — the middle tier of the sport, a long way from the top races in Britain — and even there has won just 1 of its 18 races at that level, roughly one in every eighteen attempts. That is a modest return.

Sean Levey, who has ridden the horse more than anyone else, has managed 1 win from their 11 races together — winning about 1 in every 11 outings as a partnership, or around 9%. That win is, of course, the Windsor victory, which means the two of them have been searching for a repeat ever since. Trainer Tom Ward's yard has sent out 13 winners this season, so there is form in the operation — Capotes Dream just hasn't been the one delivering it lately.

After an 81-day break, the horse returns here fresher than it has been. Whether that rest translates into anything more competitive remains to be seen. At nine years old, this is a horse in the later chapters of its career, and the gap since that Windsor win keeps growing. Punters with long memories will know that a horse can surprise you — but Capotes Dream will need to do something it hasn't managed in nearly three years to prove the optimists right.