Caledonian

From 9 races in total, that one win and two places (an 11% win rate, or roughly 1 win in every 9 races) tells the story of a horse that has been competitive without quite being able to put it all together consistently. His best results have come over 7 furlongs to a mile — a record of 1 win from 4 races at those distances, which works out at 1 in 4, a noticeably stronger return than his overall figures suggest. That distance range is clearly where he's most comfortable, and Simcock has always believed he can stay further too, which leaves room for optimism.

What makes his recent form harder to read is the 18-month gap since that Southwell win. His last six races tell a story of a horse who has largely disappointed — finishing fourth, then seventh, then two fifths, a fifth again, and finally an eighth most recently — with the race just a day ago. That run of results would concern any follower. At Class 4 level (the mid-tier of British racing, a step below the really competitive stuff), he's won 1 from 5, or 1 in every 5 attempts, which is a decent return at that grade — but the momentum from Southwell feels a long way back.

Simcock's early confidence hasn't visibly translated into a horse that's kicking on, and at 4 years old, time isn't unlimited. The talent may still be there — he reportedly finished second to a horse Simcock rated highly in Back In Black — but Caledonian is at a crossroads. The next few races should tell you whether this is a horse who found his level and then lost it, or one who has a decent performance still left in him.