Bulgaden Castle

The recent form tells an interesting story. The sequence reads 10-3-2-2-2 going back through the last five runs — a rough start that has given way to a run of consistent placing. Three runner-up finishes in a row suggests this is a horse that is improving and finding its level, even if the winning post keeps arriving a length or two too early. It last raced 22 days ago, so it is fit, active, and clearly being campaigned with purpose.

Simon Torrens has been in the saddle for all five of those races, and together they are yet to find the winner's enclosure — but given how consistently Bulgaden Castle has been finishing second, it is hard to pin that on the partnership. Sometimes a horse just needs one race to click. Trainer P J Rothwell, based in Tinahely in County Wicklow, has had a productive season with 35 winners sent out from the yard, which means this is not a team that is making up the numbers. They know how to win races, and they clearly believe Bulgaden Castle is capable of joining that tally.

The key question hanging over this horse is whether it can convert all that placing into an actual victory. Finishing second three times in a row is the kind of form that would drive owners to distraction — close enough to see the prize, not close enough to collect it. But the trajectory is pointing in the right direction, and a yard with 35 winners this season is unlikely to keep running a horse that has no realistic chance of breaking through.