Bolster

The real concern is the recent form. Bolster has not won in his last six races, finishing with a ninth, two ninths, a fifth, and two fourths. These are not disastrous results — the fourths and fifth show he is still competitive — but they tell the story of a horse slipping backward. It has been over a year since his last victory, and that long drought raises questions about whether age or changing circumstances have caught up with him.

There are glimmers of hope. Bolster absolutely loves wet or muddy ground, winning 3 of his last 4 races on those surfaces — a 75 percent win rate that stands out sharply against his overall record. He also performs best when ridden by Pierre-Louis Jamin, his most frequent partner, who has won 4 races from 10 aboard the horse, a 40 percent success rate together. Jack Morland, his trainer at Newmarket, has had a productive season with 14 winners, so the yard is in form. If Bolster can find soft ground and Jamin in the saddle, there may still be a winning race in him. For now, though, he is a horse in need of a change of luck.