Blackwater Lilly
Blackwater Lilly is a 6-year-old with a singular moment of glory and a long, patient wait for another. The horse has managed just one win from 25 races — that breakthrough came at Bangor-on-Dee back in May 2025, and nothing has landed in the 15 months since. With eight places to show for the rest of the effort, there is clearly some ability in there, but it is buried deep. The win rate of 4 per cent tells you this is a horse that earns its keep more through consistency than brilliance.Based on TrackLab's AI analysis
📊 Key Numbers
Career statistics for this horse
32%
Place rate (top 3)
avg ~30%
🔍 Full Analysis
TrackLab's AI-generated assessment based on career data and recent form
Neil King's Wroughton yard has kept Blackwater Lilly ticking over through a campaign that has seen no recent wins. The horse's last six races tell a familiar story: a fourth, a sixth, two more fourths, and an eleventh. There has been a place in most of those runs, which suggests the horse is competitive enough to land minor money but rarely good enough to finish in front. What is striking is that Blackwater Lilly actually does better over longer distances — it has won one from 15 races at 2 miles and beyond, compared to nothing from seven runs at the higher Class 5 level. The horse seems to need the trip and the room to run, yet even that formula has not clicked in a long time.
Craig Nichol, who has ridden Blackwater Lilly six times, is one of the few to have extracted a win from the horse — a 17 per cent win rate together, which stands out against the overall 4 per cent. That suggests the pairing works, though even that partnership has not produced a winner recently. Blackwater Lilly raced just a day ago and remains active on the circuit, still grinding away for that second win that would at least break the streak and give the yard something to build on.
⚡ Strengths & Risks
What the data says works for and against this horse
✓ What works in their favour
✔ Excellent record on good ground: 1 wins from 16 starts (6%)
✔ Well suited by Long Distance (2m+) distances: 7% win rate
⚠ What to watch out for
⚠ Poor record on good_to_soft ground: 0 wins from 3 starts
⚠ Poor record on good_to_firm ground: 0 wins from 3 starts
⚠ Poor record on standard ground: 0 wins from 3 starts
⚠ Yet to win at Sedgefield in 5 attempts
⚠ Struggles on LH Galloping tracks: 0 wins from 7 starts
🎯 Where This Horse Thrives
Performance broken down by ground, distance, class, and track type
🌧 Ground Conditions
Good to soft (some give)
Avoids
Good to firm (drying out)
Avoids
Standard (all-weather)
Avoids
📏 Race Distance
Long Distance (2M+)
Loves
🏅 Competition Level
Class 2 (high-level)
Unknown
Class 5 (entry-level)
Avoids
Class 6 (grassroots)
Unknown
🏟 Track Shape
Left-handed, tight turns
Loves
Right-handed, tight turns
Unknown
Left-handed, hilly
Unknown
Left-handed, tight
Unknown
Left-handed, long straights
Avoids
Right-handed, hilly
Avoids
📅 Recent Runs
The last 10 races, most recent first
28 Jul
4th
Beverley
1m6f – 2m · Good_To_Firm · 7 runners
15 Jul
6th
Uttoxeter
Long Distance (2m+) · Good · 10 runners
26 Jun
4th
Cartmel
Long Distance (2m+) · Good · 10 runners
31 May
4th
Fakenham
Long Distance (2m+) · Good · 4 runners
13 May
4th
Newton Abbot
Long Distance (2m+) · Good · 8 runners
25 Apr
11th
Leicester
1m3f – 1m4f · Good_To_Firm · 14 runners
10 Apr
2nd
Sedgefield
Long Distance (2m+) · Good · 7 runners
1 Apr
3rd
Sedgefield
Long Distance (2m+) · Good · 7 runners
28 Mar
6th
Doncaster
1m3f – 1m4f · Good_To_Soft · 15 runners
10 Mar
4th
Sedgefield
Long Distance (2m+) · Good · 9 runners
🏇 Jockey Partnerships
Every jockey who has ridden this horse, sorted by rides together
🏟 Track Record
Win rate at each course this horse has visited
| Course | Races | Results | Last visited | Win rate |
| Sedgefield Sharp |
5 |
1 second, 2 thirds, 2 other |
10 Apr |
0% |
| Beverley Undulating |
2 |
2 other |
28 Jul |
0% |
| Thirsk Galloping |
2 |
2 other |
15 Jul |
0% |
| Southwell Galloping |
2 |
2 other |
23 Jan |
0% |
| Newcastle Galloping |
2 |
1 second, 1 other |
20 Dec |
0% |
| Uttoxeter Sharp |
2 |
1 second, 1 other |
15 Jul |
0% |
| Bangor-on-Dee Sharp |
1 |
1 win |
17 May |
100% |
| Market Rasen Sharp |
1 |
1 other |
7 Jul |
0% |
| Kelso Undulating |
1 |
1 second |
18 Sep |
0% |
| Newton Abbot Sharp |
1 |
1 other |
13 May |
0% |
| Cartmel Tight |
1 |
1 other |
26 Jun |
0% |
| Fakenham Tight |
1 |
1 other |
31 May |
0% |
| Leicester Sharp |
1 |
1 other |
25 Apr |
0% |
| Hexham Undulating |
1 |
1 third |
14 Apr |
0% |
| Carlisle Undulating |
1 |
1 other |
4 Aug |
0% |
| Doncaster Galloping |
1 |
1 other |
28 Mar |
0% |