Based

That solitary place from five races is, on the face of it, a thin return. But the direction of travel matters as much as the raw numbers, and a horse that was finishing twelfth not long ago and is now running into second has made genuine progress. The question now is whether Based can convert that improvement into an actual win — because a place is nice, but it doesn't change the record.

Based is trained by William Knight at Newmarket, which is about as central a location as British racing gets. Knight's yard has been in decent form this season, sending out 28 winners — a solid body of work that suggests the operation knows what it's doing. Having that kind of support behind a horse still hunting its first win is a meaningful advantage. The team clearly believes there's a race to be won here, and after that runner-up finish, it's hard to argue otherwise.