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Baltray

Baltray is an 8-year-old who has made his supporters work hard for their moments of joy. From 14 races, he has won just once — that's a win rate of roughly 1 in every 14 outings — though he has placed seven times, meaning he's been competitive far more often than his solitary win suggests. He's been raced in that middle tier of the sport, the kind of level where horses need to be consistent rather than spectacular, and across 11 races at that grade he has won once from eleven attempts, a rate of around 9%.Based on TrackLab's AI analysis
Quick Facts
Age
8 years old
Sex
Gelding
Colour
Bay
Father
Milan
Mother
Shapley Shadow
Owner
Mrs Sarah Metcalfe
Rating
106

📊 Key Numbers

Career statistics for this horse
14
Career races
1
Wins
7.1%
Win rate
avg ~10%
50%
Place rate (top 3)
avg ~30%
1 days
Since last race

🔍 Full Analysis

TrackLab's AI-generated assessment based on career data and recent form
TrackLab's Detailed Breakdown
Auto-Generated

That one win came at Hereford back in November 2023 — now more than 30 months ago — and it wasn't a fluke. Emma Lavelle, who trains him from her yard in Ogbourne Maizey in Wiltshire, explained at the time that Baltray had arrived from Ireland looking a little light and was given time to fill out and settle. He repaid that patience by running an encouraging race on his first start over hurdles at Fontwell, then didn't need to improve much at all to win at Hereford, doing it comfortably. Lavelle noted that a mark of 112 — essentially the handicapper's assessment of how good he is — made him an interesting horse to place in the right races, and that he'd likely appreciate wetter, softer ground when it came.

Since that win, though, Baltray has gone six races without adding to his tally. His recent form reads 3rd, 5th, 5th, a run that didn't result in a finishing position, then 2nd and 6th — so there are signs of life in there, particularly that second place, but nothing that has translated into a winner's enclosure visit. He raced just yesterday, which tells you the team are keeping him busy and looking for the right opportunity.

Lavelle's yard has been in fine form this season, sending out 47 winners, so Baltray is operating within a capable operation. The question now is whether the right conditions — a soft, testing surface that suits him and a race where the handicapper's number works in his favour — can unlock another win before too much more time passes. He's shown he can do it. He just needs the stars to align again.

Strengths & Risks

What the data says works for and against this horse
✓ What works in their favour
Excellent record on good ground: 1 wins from 7 starts (14%)
⚠ What to watch out for
Poor record on good_to_soft ground: 0 wins from 4 starts
Struggles on LH Sharp tracks: 0 wins from 8 starts

🎯 Where This Horse Thrives

Performance broken down by ground, distance, class, and track type
🌧 Ground Conditions
Good (firm-ish)
Loves
Heavy (very wet)
Unknown
Soft (muddy)
Unknown
Good to firm (drying out)
Unknown
Good to soft (some give)
Avoids
📏 Race Distance
Long Distance (2M+)
🏅 Competition Level
Class 4 (standard)
🏟 Track Shape
Right-handed, long straights
Unknown
Long straights
Unknown
Left-handed, tight turns
Avoids
Left-handed, tight
Avoids

📅 Recent Runs

The last 10 races, most recent first
6 May
3rd
Newton Abbot
Long Distance (2m+) · Good · 9 runners
9 Mar
5th
Plumpton
Long Distance (2m+) · Good_To_Soft
9 Mar
5th
Plumpton
Long Distance (2m+) · Good_To_Soft · 7 runners
10 Nov
DNF
Kempton Park
Long Distance (2m+) · Good · 10 runners
6 Oct
2nd
Stratford-on-Avon
Long Distance (2m+) · Good · 6 runners
1 Jul
6th
Stratford-on-Avon
Long Distance (2m+) · Good_To_Firm · 9 runners
5 Jun
3rd
Uttoxeter
Long Distance (2m+) · Good · 8 runners
11 Apr
DNF
Fontwell Park
Long Distance (2m+) · Good · 5 runners
2 Dec
DNF
Plumpton
Long Distance (2m+) · Good_To_Soft · 11 runners
29 Oct
DNF
Bangor-on-Dee
Long Distance (2m+) · Soft · 12 runners

🏇 Jockey Partnerships

Every jockey who has ridden this horse, sorted by rides together
33.3%
Win rate
1/3
Won / Rode
Liam Harrison Current Jockey
0%
Win rate
0/2
Won / Rode
Cameron Johnstone-Baker
0%
Win rate
0/2
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/2
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
Mr D Allen
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
Joe Anderson
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode

🏟 Track Record

Win rate at each course this horse has visited
CourseRacesResultsLast visitedWin rate
Plumpton
Sharp
3 3 other 9 Mar 0%
Fontwell Park
Tight
3 2 seconds, 1 other 11 Apr 0%
Stratford-on-Avon
Sharp
2 1 second, 1 other 6 Oct 0%
hereford 1 1 win 6 Nov 100%
Kempton Park
Galloping
1 1 other 10 Nov 0%
Uttoxeter
Sharp
1 1 third 5 Jun 0%
Newton Abbot
Sharp
1 1 third 6 May 0%
Limerick
Galloping
1 1 third 28 Dec 0%
Bangor-on-Dee
Sharp
1 1 other 29 Oct 0%