Ballyfad

The career numbers are striking. Three wins and five places from six races amounts to a win rate of 50% — winning exactly 1 in every 2 races — with only one run that produced nothing. Elliott's yard has sent out 209 winners this season alone, so the horses there have to be good to stand out, and Ballyfad does. His most recent victory came at Leopardstown on St Stephen's Day, December 26th, and even then the picture was more impressive than a win alone suggests. He held off King Rasko Grey but was caught on the line by Talk The Talk in what became an extremely tight finish — and Elliott's response wasn't frustration, it was confidence. He pointed out Ballyfad had done everything right, battled hard, and that on faster, drier ground he could be even better.

That ground concern has been a recurring thread. Elliott's team were a little wary that Ballyfad might be sluggish when conditions get wet and heavy, and while he has clearly handled it well enough to win, the trainer's belief that there is another gear available on quicker ground makes his Cheltenham prospects genuinely exciting. Cheltenham's late-March ground is often perfectly placed for a horse like this.

As for which race he runs in at the Festival, Elliott has yet to make the final call — it will be either the Supreme Novices' Hurdle or the Turners Novices' Chase — but either way, the trainer is clear that Ballyfad will make his presence felt. Perhaps even more intriguing is the longer view: Elliott has already said he considers Ballyfad a future chaser, and is looking forward to that phase of his career. For now, the Festival comes first. A horse with this record, this consistency, and a trainer with 209 winners behind him this season deserves to be on your radar.