Ballybaymoonshiner

The clearest thing the stats reveal is where Ballybaymoonshiner does its best work: at distances between seven furlongs and a mile. In 10 races at that range, the horse has won twice — a 20% win rate, or 1 in every 5, which is genuinely strong. That is not a coincidence. It tells you the horse has a specific sweet spot, and when trainer Murty McGrath gets the conditions right, results follow. McGrath operates out of East Malling in Kent, a relatively modest yard that has sent out one winner this season — so every victory matters, and Ballybaymoonshiner has been part of that picture.

The horse races almost exclusively at Class 6, the entry-level tier of British racing, which gives you a sense of where it sits in the pecking order. That is not a criticism — most horses run at this level — but it does mean the competition is beatable on the right day. The trouble is consistency. Ten places from 25 races tells you Ballybaymoonshiner is often in the mix without quite getting there, the kind of horse that finishes third when you need it to finish first.

Jockey Shane Kelly has been aboard for 16 of those 25 races, winning once together — a 6% win rate, or roughly 1 in 16. That is a modest partnership by any measure, though it has clearly been a durable one. The first career win came at Kempton Park in January 2024, and more recently the horse scored at Chelmsford in May 2025. Back-to-back wins across different tracks suggests Ballybaymoonshiner had a genuine purple patch earlier this year.

The recent form reads 6-11-–-3-1-4, and that gap in the sequence — a race with no finishing position recorded — combined with a win and some near-misses suggests the horse has been in and out of form lately. Still, it raced just yesterday and remains active, which means McGrath clearly thinks there is another win in there somewhere. At seven furlongs to a mile, on the right day, he might just be right.