Astelia

The recent form makes for interesting reading. Three second-place finishes in the last six races — a sequence that would frustrate any follower — suggest Astelia is operating at a level where it regularly beats most of the field, just not quite all of it. Racing to second three times in recent months is the equine equivalent of always finishing runner-up in pub quizzes: the ability is clearly there, the result keeps falling short. That said, a seventh and a tenth are also in there, so it is not entirely consistent, which may be part of why the breakthrough win has remained elusive.

Fahey's yard has been in solid form this season, sending out 14 winners, so the operation knows how to get a horse to the line first. Astelia raced just yesterday, which underlines that it is very much an active runner right now rather than a horse being managed carefully toward one big target. Whether a first career win is coming is the question every race poses afresh — and given how often it has been placed, it would be no great surprise if the answer finally came back yes.