Arranmore

Both wins have come on normal ground conditions, from a total of 13 races in those conditions, meaning it wins 2 in every 13 times the track is playing fair. At a distance of around a mile and three or four furlongs, it has won 2 from 8 races — that is 1 in every 4, which is a genuinely strong conversion rate. The picture that emerges is of a horse that needs things to be just right, but when they are, it delivers.

Arranmore is trained by Micky Hammond at Middleham in North Yorkshire, a yard that has sent out 25 winners this season, so there is clearly no shortage of competence in the setup. The partnership with jockey Aiden Brookes is the most significant of the horse's career — 27 races together, both wins included, winning at a rate of roughly 1 in 14 when they're paired up. That shared history matters: these two know each other.

What is striking about the current moment is that Arranmore is genuinely in form. It won at Southwell just seven weeks ago, and its last six runs read 5-2-1-5-4-4 from most recent backwards — meaning second and then a win in the heart of that sequence. It raced just yesterday, so this is an active, busy horse in the middle of a campaign, not one being dusted off after a long absence.

The one shadow over the record is class. In 17 races at Class 5 — the lower end of the scale — Arranmore has not won once. Both victories have come elsewhere, which is an odd quirk worth noting. At nine years old, with a career record that rewards patience and specific conditions, this is a horse that has quietly figured out what it needs. When Hammond and Brookes find the right race on the right ground at the right trip, recent evidence suggests it can still deliver.