Arctic Dawn

The key to Arctic Dawn is the ground. On wet or muddy ground, he has won 2 of his 7 races — nearly 1 in 3 — and it's no coincidence that both career wins on those conditions came when he was able to dominate from the front. His first career win came at Ffos Las in June 2025, where jockey David Egan told Sky Sports Racing that Arctic Dawn was "the yardstick" — meaning he set the standard others had to beat — and they simply couldn't. That kind of confidence from a jockey in a post-race interview says more than a form figure ever could.

By late October, Arctic Dawn had won again, this time at Newcastle. That gives him 2 wins from his last 6 races, a run of form his overall record doesn't fully advertise. His trainer noted earlier in the season that he'd been unlucky in running at York — where he finished fourth behind a rival named Mums Tipple — and had been placed in a valuable Sunday race at Southwell too. The picture being painted was of a horse whose rating in the mid-to-high 70s wasn't the ceiling, but more of a floor he hadn't yet broken through consistently. Daniel Kubler's assessment was blunt and optimistic: get it together on the track, and he's better than his mark.

The one puzzle is his partnership with Richard Kingscote, who has ridden him five times without a win. That's a 0 from 5 record together, which stands out given Arctic Dawn's wins have come with other jockeys in the saddle. The Kubler yard has sent out 34 winners this season — a busy, productive operation — and Arctic Dawn has been one of the pieces that keeps delivering at the right moment. He raced just yesterday, so the yard clearly have him in good order. Watch for him when the rain comes.