Aqua Bear
Aqua Bear has won just once in ten career races, but that single victory came in the right place at the right time. The 3-year-old broke its duck at Newcastle on 22 November 2025, a win that proved worth the wait after four earlier races without success. Since then, however, the horse has struggled to recapture that form. Over its last six races, Aqua Bear has managed only one place finish—a fourth in its most recent outing a day ago—suggesting it may have found the level it sits at a tough one to crack.Based on TrackLab's AI analysis
📊 Key Numbers
Career statistics for this horse
40%
Place rate (top 3)
avg ~30%
🔍 Full Analysis
TrackLab's AI-generated assessment based on career data and recent form
The statistics tell a sobering story for the yard. One win from ten races is a 10% win rate, and with eight months having passed since that Newcastle success, Aqua Bear faces the familiar problem of being a horse caught between winning again and drifting further from its only success. The recent run of results—17th, 11th, 3rd, 16th, 4th, and back to winning form that day last week—shows wildly inconsistent performances with no clear upward trajectory. Still, Aqua Bear is raced by Ian Williams at Portway in Worcestershire, a yard that has already sent out 96 winners this season, so the horse has experienced handlers behind it. Whether Aqua Bear can find another win and establish itself as a genuine competitor rather than a one-race wonder remains to be seen.
⚡ Strengths & Risks
What the data says works for and against this horse
⚠ What to watch out for
⚠ Poor record on good ground: 0 wins from 4 starts
⚠ Poor record on good_to_firm ground: 0 wins from 3 starts
🎯 Where This Horse Thrives
Performance broken down by ground, distance, class, and track type
🌧 Ground Conditions
Standard (all-weather)
Unknown
Yielding (slightly soft)
Unknown
Good to firm (drying out)
Avoids
🏅 Competition Level
Class 5 (entry-level)
Unknown
🏟 Track Shape
Left-handed, long straights
Loves
Right-handed, hilly
Avoids
Right-handed, long straights
Avoids
📅 Recent Runs
The last 10 races, most recent first
30 Jul
17th
Goodwood
1m1f – 1m2f · Good_To_Firm · 20 runners
10 Jul
11th
Newmarket
7f – 1m · Good_To_Firm · 11 runners
24 Jun
3rd
Carlisle
7f – 1m · Good_To_Firm · 11 runners
23 May
16th
Goodwood
7f – 1m · Good · 18 runners
8 May
4th
Ascot
7f – 1m · Good · 10 runners
22 Nov
🏆 Won
Newcastle
7f – 1m · Standard · 10 runners
10 Oct
2nd
Dundalk
7f – 1m · Standard · 17 runners
14 Sep
9th
The Curragh
5f – 6½f · Yielding · 16 runners
24 Aug
2nd
Naas
5f – 6½f · Good · 13 runners
13 Aug
7th
Gowran Park
7f – 1m · Good · 14 runners
🏇 Jockey Partnerships
Every jockey who has ridden this horse, sorted by rides together
🏟 Track Record
Win rate at each course this horse has visited
| Course | Races | Results | Last visited | Win rate |
|---|
| Goodwood Undulating |
2 |
2 other |
30 Jul |
0% |
| Newcastle Galloping |
1 |
1 win |
22 Nov |
100% |
| Naas Galloping |
1 |
1 second |
24 Aug |
0% |
| Ascot Galloping |
1 |
1 other |
8 May |
0% |
| Newmarket Galloping |
1 |
1 other |
10 Jul |
0% |
| The Curragh Galloping |
1 |
1 other |
14 Sep |
0% |
| Gowran Park Undulating |
1 |
1 other |
13 Aug |
0% |
| Dundalk Galloping |
1 |
1 second |
10 Oct |
0% |
| Carlisle Undulating |
1 |
1 third |
24 Jun |
0% |