Alphonse Le Grande

Since then, nothing. Twenty-two months have passed without another win. His last six races have brought a fourth, a fifth, two thirteenths, a twelfth, and a seventh—the sort of form that suggests the engine has simply switched off. What makes this harder to understand is that he still seems capable: he placed in four of those six recent runs, so he is not completely out of it. But winning races and finishing near the money are different things, and Alphonse Le Grande now seems to be very much in the latter category.

The clues to what he might still do are there if you look carefully. He adores normal ground: three wins from ten races on standard conditions, a 30 percent win rate that stands out against his overall one-in-six record. He also has form as a course specialist at Dundalk, where he has won twice from five races. At distances between one mile one furlong and one mile two furlongs, he has managed one win from four tries—nothing spectacular, but consistent enough to suggest that pace suits him better than tests of pure stamina. The puzzle is why he suddenly stopped winning. At seven, he is not over the hill, yet something has changed since his last success at Newmarket, and for now, at least, he remains a horse still searching for his way back.