Alpha Capture

What makes Alpha Capture genuinely interesting is the ceiling this horse has already proven it can reach. On 8 October 2022 it won a Class 1 race at York — one of the top races in Britain, at one of the most prestigious tracks in the country. That is not something most horses ever get close to, and it tells you that at its best, Alpha Capture belongs in elite company. The career started promisingly too, with a first win at Carlisle in August 2022, and within six weeks it had stepped up and beaten the best. The problem is that the horse has been running predominantly at Class 2 level since — the second tier of British racing — and has managed zero wins from six attempts there. The level seems to sit just above where it can currently win.

Roger Fell's yard in Nawton, North Yorkshire, has sent out 23 winners this season, so this is an operation that knows how to get horses in form. Alpha Capture raced just yesterday and is clearly still being kept busy. Tom Marquand, the horse's most regular partner, has ridden it nine times for two wins — a win rate of 22%, or roughly 1 in every 4.5 rides together, which is actually the best combination this horse has found. The distance that suits it most is the short, sharp sprint trips of five to six and a half furlongs, where it has won 2 of 9 races at a 22% clip. Put Marquand back on, find a race at the right trip, and maybe drop slightly in class — and you have the ingredients for a return to the winner's enclosure. The talent is clearly there. It just needs the right day.