Afadil

What makes Afadil worth watching, though, is what he has managed on his best days. He has won at both Class 1 and Class 2 level — the top two tiers of British racing — and both of those wins came at Musselburgh, a tight, flat track on the outskirts of Edinburgh. In six visits there, he has won twice and placed three more times. That kind of record at a specific track is not coincidence. Some horses simply take to a particular circuit, and Musselburgh brings out something in Afadil that many other venues do not. The ground matters too: on wet or slightly soft underfoot conditions, he has won 2 of his 10 races, a 20% win rate that tells a much more flattering story than his overall numbers.

The frustration is that the big moments have occasionally slipped away. Nicholls has spoken about a run at Sandown's Imperial Cup — a prestigious spring prize — where Afadil looked like he might win, only to be caught out by ground that turned out softer than anyone expected. That kind of near-miss is hard to shake. His recent form reads 10-6-7-5-2-4, which means a second place in there but nothing better across his last six races, the most recent of which was just yesterday.

Jockey Freddie Gingell has ridden him 15 times for a single win together — roughly 1 in 15 — though Nicholls praised him warmly after that Musselburgh victory. The trainer's yard at Ditcheat has sent out 92 winners this season, which is an extraordinary operation to be part of, even if Afadil has not been contributing to the tally lately. With a move to chasing now being considered after his reappearance at Ascot, this horse may yet find a new gear in a different discipline. Racehorses can surprise you.