Action

The career numbers so far tell a tidy story: one win and five placed efforts from six races, which works out at roughly a win in every six runs (17%), but perhaps more tellingly, Action has never finished worse than fourth. That kind of consistent involvement at the business end of races suggests a horse that belongs at a decent level, even if it hasn't always closed the deal. Over the trips it seems to suit best — a mile and a furlong to a mile and two — it has won 1 from 4 races, a 25% win rate that represents one in every four attempts.

What really sharpens the picture, though, is what O'Brien said on a stable tour this spring. He confirmed Action finished second in the Futurity Trophy — a serious, top-level race for the best young horses in Europe — and that the plan is to point him squarely at the Derby at Epsom. That is not a race you aim for with a horse you're merely hopeful about. O'Brien specifically called him an "Epsom type", which is trainer shorthand for a horse with the stride and the temperament to handle one of the most unusual and demanding tracks in the world. A trial at Chester or Leopardstown is expected to come first.

With 144 winners already sent out this season, the O'Brien yard is operating at its customary extraordinary level — roughly 144 reasons to believe that when they target a Classic, they mean it. Action is currently active and clearly in a serious campaign, which means the next few months could define exactly what kind of racehorse he turns out to be.